Predictors of hip fracture in 15 European countries: a longitudinal study of 48,533 geriatric adults using SHARE dataset

Summary: We investigated the risk factors for hip fracture in 48,533 European older adults for 8 years from 2013 onward. We identified female gender, age above 80, low handgrip strength, and depression as significant risk factors for hip fracture. Our findings may help identify high-risk populations for hip fractures in pre-clinical settings. Objectives: Hip fracture is a major cause of functional disability, mortality, and health costs. However, the identification and characterization of its causative factors remain poor. Methods: We investigated demography, handgrip strength (HGS), depression, and multiple age-associated comorbidities for predicting future hip fracture in individuals aged 50 or above from 15 European countries (n = 48,533). All participants were evaluated from 2013 to 2020 using four successive waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Results: Altogether, 1130 participants developed hip fractures during the study period. We identified female gender, an advancing age from quinquagenarians onward, and a poor socioeconomic status as critical risk factors for future hip fracture. Having mobility difficulty, a low HGS (< 27 kg in men, < 16 kg in women) and higher scores on Euro-D depression scales were also significant risk factors for hip fracture. Summated scales of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, and stroke did not appear as risk factors. Conclusion: Collectively, we report advancing age, female gender, low HGS, and depression as independent risk factors for hip fracture. Our findings are useful in identifying high-risk populations for hip fractures in pre-clinical settings before rigorous evaluation and treatment in clinics.