Hypertension and its determinants in Abu Dhabi population: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Preventing high blood pressure and its complications requires identifying its risk factors. This study assessed predictors of hypertension and its associated complications among Emirati adults in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Methods: This retrospective cohort study was conducted by retrieving data from the Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Emiratis who participated in a national cardiovascular screening program between 2011 and 2013. The study cohort comprised 8456 Emirati adults (18years and above): 4095 women and 4361 men. The average follow-up period was 9.2years, with a maximum of 12years. Results: The age-adjusted hypertension prevalence in Abu Dhabi increased from 24.5% at baseline to 35.2% in 2023. At baseline, 61.8% of hypertensive patients had controlled blood pressure, which increased to 74.3% in 2023. Among those free from hypertension at screening, 835 patients (12.3%) were newly diagnosed during the follow-up period. Using Cox regression, the hypertension prediction model developed included age [P value <0.001, hazard ratio 1.051, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.046-1.056], SBP (P value <0.001, hazard ratio 1.017, 95% CI 1.011-1.023) and DBP (P value <0.001, hazard ratio 1.029, 95% CI 1.02-1.037), glycated hemoglobin (P<0.001, hazard ratio 1.132, 95% CI 1.077-1.191), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (P value <0.001, hazard ratio 0.662, 95% CI 0.526-0.832). This prediction model had a c-statistic of 0.803 (95% CI 0.786-0.819). Using survival analysis (Kaplan-Meier), higher blood pressure was associated with more cardiovascular events and mortality during follow-up. Conclusion: Targeting population-specific predictors of hypertension can prevent its progression and inform healthcare professionals and policymakers to decrease the incidence, complications, and mortality related to hypertension.