Cost-effectiveness analysis of seasonal influenza vaccination compared to no vaccination in the United Arab Emirates and Iraq

Introduction: Influenza is often considered a trivial illness due to its generally mild symptoms. This perception overlooks the extensive scale of people affected annually, many of whom experience severe complications requiring hospitalization. To date, vaccination remains the most effective strategy to reduce the burden of influenza. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination within the United Arab Emirates and Iraq from the payer perspective, highlighting its potential to improve public health outcomes. Methods: A static individual simulation decision tree model was employed over a lifetime horizon to simulate two scenarios: one with influenza vaccination and one without. The model includes individual characteristics such as age, sex, chronic health conditions, and specific risk groups to determine the infection rate. Based on such factors, if a patient gets infected, their journey can range from outpatient care to ICU admission and even death in severe cases. Results: Vaccination was found to be cost-effective for the general population in the UAE and in Iraq. In high-risk patients, vaccination showed dominance in all age groups (except 18–49 in Iraq–it showed cost effectiveness), while in non-high-risk patients, dominance was shown in 0–4 years and 65+ years age groups. Additionally, the vaccine demonstrated cost-effectiveness for the general population in all scenario analyses (except for vaccine efficacy scenario in Iraq). Conclusions: By conducting a thorough analysis of the vaccine’s cost-effectiveness, policymakers are provided with valuable local insights enabling more effective vaccination strategies in their respective countries.